Tag: Federal Reserve

Episode 8: The Circle of Life…and Death: The Business Cycle

For centuries, economies across the globe have had booms and they’ve had busts. As we all know, the booms are a good time and the busts, well, not so good of a time. But is this normal? Should economies have a business cycle? In this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel take a dive into the business cycle as we know it today and discuss the implications of an overly aggressive Federal Reserve, as well as a look at where we are in today’s “business cycle”.

Episode 6: The Bond Market: Shaken, Not Stirred

As prices of everyday goods seemingly only continue to increase at a rapid pace, most are calling for this inflation to be long lasting.  However, a look into one of the most accurate predictors, the treasury market, we can see that there may be a different story unfolding on inflation.  While the bond market seems to be shaken, it is certainly not stirred by long-term investors.

Jay Powell And The Chamber of Secrets

The question investors need to grapple with today is whether or not they believe in the government’s wizardry, or whether they accept the metaphysics of Parmenides and, well, the entire western tradition.

The Dukes of Moral Hazard

The absence of moral hazard is desirable because it encourages good behavior and fosters a healthy and prosperous society. Sadly, moral hazard has flooded our financial system as of late. And the responsibility for this perverse capital system lies at the feet of the dukes of moral hazard: The Federal Reserve.

The Very Definition Of It

The capitalistic social order acquires meaning and purpose through the market. Hampering the functions of the market and the formation of prices does not create order. Instead it leads to chaos, to economic crisis.

The Fed Can’t Stop the Economic Slowdown

Federal Reserve wants to avoid an economic slowdown and they think cutting interest rates may do it. Unfortunately, like a daisy flower in front of an avalanche, the Fed can’t stop the economic slowdown.

Halloween May Be Gone, But The Zombies Are Still Here!

In our most recent newsletter, we outlined one of the biggest challenges facing the US economy going forward: the debt avalanche. And there is no better example of the massive debt increase and it’s increasing risks than “zombie” companies.

A Skip, Hop and A Jump

Living in the San Joaquin Valley – in the heart of California – has it’s perks: centralized locale, mild weather, and fresh fruit. But one thing the valley isn’t known for is clean air. Smog is a way of life here. This is why many people take short drives to the coast to get some […]

Greatly Inflated Expectations

While the broad economy has continued humming along for the last year or so, so have most people’s ‘inflated expectations’ about the direction of interest rates. Depending on how you look at the numbers, we might be in the best of times or we might be in the worst of them.