Tag: Stock Market

With ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the global economy and markets, the Federal Reserve looks to guide the US economy into the Promise Land of a “soft-landing”. The Fed believes that by increasing short-term interest rates, they will be able to lower inflation without compromising growth. On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel question the Fed’s outlook, and point to data suggesting our destination may entail a bumpier experience. Will Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve be able to slap a band-aid on our economic wounds, or will only major surgery fix what ails this economy? Tune in to find out why the answer is the latter, and why that may not be such bad news after all!

As uncertainty within the global economy continues to grow, so do the inventories of major manufacturers and suppliers. On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel discuss what they’re seeing from supplier data, in a rising interest rate environment and what it could mean for consumer prices and company earnings over the next 6 to 12 months.

With run-away energy prices in Europe as a result of conflict with Russia, the risks to a significant downturn in the global economy continue to increase. On this episode, Isaac and Joel breakdown the turmoil taking place across the globe and what it could mean for a US economy that is already on the verge.

For centuries, economies across the globe have had booms and they’ve had busts. As we all know, the booms are a good time and the busts, well, not so good of a time. But is this normal? Should economies have a business cycle? In this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel take a dive into the business cycle as we know it today and discuss the implications of an overly aggressive Federal Reserve, as well as a look at where we are in today’s “business cycle”.

With the economy seemingly flying into very choppy conditions, the Federal Reserve is doing everything they can to fight off inflation. However, will the rising of interest rates to combat the inflation, send the economy and markets into a tailspin? Is a recession imminent? On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel take a deeper dive into what has got us to this point, as well as what likely lies ahead.

As prices of everyday goods seemingly only continue to increase at a rapid pace, most are calling for this inflation to be long lasting.  However, a look into one of the most accurate predictors, the treasury market, we can see that there may be a different story unfolding on inflation.  While the bond market seems to be shaken, it is certainly not stirred by long-term investors.

Fragile economies are incredibly vulnerable to external shocks. When an economy has very little savings, massive amounts of debt, and asset price bubbles everywhere, it doesn’t take much to plunge into a recession. The Coronavirus, as it turns out, isn’t just especially dangerous to fragile people. It’s especially dangerous to our fragile economy as well.

In his 2001 interview with Fortune, Warren Buffett pointed to what he called the “best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. This metric has become known as the “Buffett Indicator”. It measures the total value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the countries total business (i.e. GNP). It is currently indicating something important.

There is an old adage that says “correlation does not equal causation”. Just because two metrics, or trends, move in the same direction at the same time doesn’t mean that one causes the other. But while we shouldn’t assume that correlation equals causation, there are times – on the margin – when interesting correlations should cause us to look deeper. This is one of those times.

The U.S. stock market is doing its best to imitate a rocket powered by the Energizer Bunny. Some might complain that, in light of this never-ending bull market, our caution is getting in the way of larger gains. That concern is worthy of a response, which I hope to briefly provide now.