Economic and Market Newsletter

spring 2023: The mona lisa effect: connecting the dots of the u.s. economy

Are you confused about the 2023 economic outlook for the U.S., the world’s largest economy? You are far from being the only one. In this issue of Investment Insights, you will begin to connect the dots underlying the U.S. economic picture and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve's soft landing narrative. 

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FALL 2022: GROWING WEALTH IN VOLATILE TIMES

In this issue of Investment Insights, we discuss: the Fed is on a ride to a destination that does not exist, the vital role of "alternative investments in portfolio construction and the coming "trade of the decade", and true wealth is created by eating from the fruit of the trees and leaving the orchard alone.

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SUMMER 2022: THE FEDERAL RESERVE "SHIFT"

One of the most important concepts in the sphere of finance and economics was set forth more than one hundred years ago by the great French economist, Frederic Bastiat, in his classic essay, “That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen.” Bastiat urged his readers to consider the broad consequences of any economic act, for it engenders not just one effect, but a series of effects.

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FALL 2021: THE IMPORTANCE OF WEIGHING THE EVIDENCE

One of my favorite movie genres is a “whodunnit?” with Knives Out being one of the most enjoyable thrill rides at the top of my list for all-time great murder mysteries. A whodunnit is a complex, plot-driven detective story in which the puzzle regarding who committed the crime is to be solved through a chain of questions that the detective poses. The audience is provided with clues and evidence throughout the investigation from which the identity of the perpetrator may be deduced before the story provides the revelation itself. 

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SPRING 2021: “FOR EVERY ACTION, THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION.”

Over 20 years ago, Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, gave a speech on the stock market—a rare subject for him to discuss publicly. His main points during that July 1999 speech concerned two consecutive and amazing periods that American investors had experienced, and his belief that returns from stocks were due to fall dramatically.

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WINTER 2020: RIDING EXTREME WAVES: PREPARING FOR LONGER-TERM RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES

by John R. "Jack" Hooper, Chief Investment Officer Key Takeaways: U.S. Election Results: Warnings of a "Blue Wave" turns out to be a blue ripple, while vaccinations and fiscal support will likely only provide a transitory splash in economic activity. With a number of large wave sets about to come…

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SPRING 2020: INTO THE "KNOWN" UNKNOWN!

COVID-19, a blimp-sized Black Swan, has landed in the backyard of every economy in the world. What should you do now? How should you invest during a crisis? While investors should never be surprised by downturns, understanding history and the stages of business cycles can be very helpful for preserving capital and preparing for the opportunities often triggered by an economic crisis.

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FALL 2019: THE POWER OF TRUTH: FOR LIFE AND YOUR PORTFOLIO TOO!

In the twelve months since our last annual 3-5 year outlook, we’ve been observing a combination of market conditions that share many of the features that have historically been points of extreme market risks. There are thousands of available data points that investors often quote, most without having the faintest idea of how they are related to subsequent outcomes. Unfortunately, much of this data is just noise.

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